Sunday, December 30, 2007

Zurich's ISN Prognosis for 2008

Awaiting us in 2008…

  • Waiting on edge in the Balkans,
  • Empowerment of radical Islamists in the Middle East,
  • Increasing Russian assertiveness,

The year 2008 will be a defining one for the Balkans, especially in Serbia, the province of Kosovo, Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. With the status of Kosovo still pending but likely to end in a unilateral declaration of independence by the province's ethnic Albanian leaders, supported by western powers, bloodshed is likely. Serb and Albanian paramilitaries are already patrolling the "borders" and are ready to "defend their homeland" at whatever cost. The end result will echo across the region, igniting separatist Bosnian Serbs and ethnic Albanians in Macedonia, writes ISN Security Watch senior analyst in Sarajevo, Anes Alic, executive director of ISA Consulting.

In the Middle East, the US will continue its clandestine war against Iran, encouraging Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq to engage in cross-border militant strikes, writes Dr Dominic Moran, ISN Security Watch's senior Middle East correspondent and the director of operations at ISA Consulting. Elsewhere in the region, US foreign policy is expected to experience little radical change, continuing support for Israel and allied Arab regimes to ensure domination of the Gulf. Still, says Moran, the November 2008 US presidential election will be pivotal, though any changes it may bring about will be witnessed in 2009 and the topic of next year's prognosis.

In Iraq, attacks on political leaders and security forces in particular look set to intensify in the south throughout the new year. Inter-factional conflicts will decide which Shia movements will win control of the southern Iraqi oil fields and infrastructure as well as of oil export and refinery facilities in Basra, writes Moran. The arming of tribal militias by the US could encourage the carving out of local spheres of influence and also destroy any hope for the emergence of a coherent federal Iraq and, in turn, empower radical Islamist movements.

In Afghanistan, any comprehensive solution will remain elusive in 2008, as the presence of foreign troops undermines the Afghan sovereignty, writes Moran.

In Africa, ISN Security Watch senior analyst Simon Roughneen says violence and suffering looks set to continue as peacekeepers and peace processes fail in Darfur, Somalia, eastern Congo, North and and South Sudan and northern Uganda. Specifically in Darfur, Roughneen says a “much-heralded UN/AU hybrid peacekeeping force looks set for failure.” Somalia is described as the greatest tragedy and most formidable challenge facing the world today.”

In Russia, the March 2008 presidential elections are unlikely to bring any form of political uncertainty, and Moscow will pursue an increasingly assertive foreign policy that will focus on strengthening its non-western groupings, writes Sergei Blagov, a senior ISN Security Watch analyst based in Moscow. The Kremlin's inner circle will remain in power in 2008, ensuring a stable political course. Russian economic growth will continue, especially with crude oil prices expected to remain high. Against this background of strong economic growth and political stability, observers will see the Kremlin grow ever more confident and assertive in pursuing Russian interests.

In other parts of the former Soviet Union - Central Asia and the Caucasus - key but largely predictable elections have either taken place in late December or are planned for the new year, writes Dr Stacy Closson from the Center for Security Studies (CSS) in Zurich. Closson discusses the disturbing pattern of single-party presidential systems, state electoral manipulation and suppression of civil society in the region. Throughout the area, any effort to protest the outcome of elections will almost certainly be limited by the state, and could become violent.

In Southeast Asia, weak states and decaying democratic institutions will pose a grave threat to the entire region and beyond, writes ISN Security Watch analyst Harsh V Pant from King's College London. The political crisis in Pakistan over the extension of President-General Pervez Musharraf's rule and the gathering momentum of radical Islamist forces will only intensify as the country prepares for January parliamentary elections, and democracy and stability are sure to suffer in the New Year. To have political currency in Pakistan, it is essential for leaders to demonstrate their independence from Washington. There is a danger that anti-Americanism will be further inflamed once democratic forces come into full play, writes Pant.

Latin America will see stronger regional alliances and some hot spots of friction, but perhaps more significantly, new levels of global access achieved by countries willing to risk trade and economic ties with the world's emerging heavyweights in the region, writes ISN Security Watch's senior analyst Sam Logan. The year 2007 was one of geopolitical consolidation across the region, with most realizing that there is more in terms of trade and development than can be found in Washington alone. Any regional-level friction will be overshadowed by what looks set to be a year in which Latin America takes a strong step forward on the global stage as an important trade and economic partner for many countries, Logan says.

In the world of finance, emerging market institutions will pursue financial activism that will accelerate a profound shift in the distribution of financial power from "the West to the Rest," writes ISN Security Watch expert Nicola Casarini, research fellow at the European University Institute, Florence. In 2008, governments and central banks from the leading economies of the US, the Eurozone, China and Japan will step up coordination of efforts to stabilize financial markets, prevent major exchange rate fluctuations and avert a recession in the US, he writes.

Meanwhile, energy prices are likely to remain high - though rendered volatile by geopolitical risks and market speculations - due to increasing demand, while supplies remain constant and terrorism targeting energy infrastructure will pose a grave danger to the world economy, but the use of the energy as a weapon by the West and Russia is unlikely, writes ISN Editor Ken Egli.

Finally, where the EU is concerned, Center for Security Studies Deputy Director Victor Mauer says that "a crucial aspect will be whether Warsaw and London will agree to leave the brakeman’s cabin, stop regarding the integration process as a zero-sum game and instead begin to take on a leadership role themselves. Should such a change fail to materialize - and the proof will be seen within months in the ratification process that has just begun - the question of a two-speed Europe will arise sooner or later."

ISN Security Watch 2008 Prognosis

  • Defining moment for the Balkans

  • The year 2008 will be a decisive one for the Balkans, particularly for Kosovo, Serbia proper, Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. And as the international community dangles carrots and offers up unearned rewards in an attempt to appease the perceived losers in the Kosovo status game, regardless of the outcome, bloodshed is likely, writes Anes Alic.

  • Middle East 2008: A fallow year

  • Beset by multiple conflicts, the Middle East is facing a new year in which the US elections will loom large over the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and efforts to address regional crises, writes Dr Dominic Moran.

  • Africa: Points of (no) return

  • Peacekeepers and peace processes are unlikely to curb elemental violence and widespread suffering across Darfur, Somalia and eastern Congo, while shaky deals could unravel between North and South Sudan, and in northern Uganda, writes Simon Roughneen.

  • Another assertive Kremlin

  • Political uncertainty is unlikely to follow Russia's March 2008 presidential elections, and Moscow is expected to continue its course of assertive international policies, with the Kremlin set to focus on forming and strengthening non-western political and economic groupings as a counterweight, writes Sergei Blagov.

  • South Asia: Dangerous democracy deficit

  • The failure of parliamentary democracy and the radicalization of politics in several states in South Asia throws into sharp relief the danger posed by the rapid decay of political institutions, writes Harsh V Pant.

  • LA: Alliances, friction and global access

  • Looking ahead to 2008, there will be stronger alliances and some hot spots of friction in Latin America, but more interesting will be the new levels of global access achieved by countries willing to risk trade and economic ties with the world's emerging heavyweights, writes Sam Logan.

  • Caucasus, Central Asia: Sad predictability

  • A disturbing pattern of single-party presidential systems, state electoral manipulation and suppression of civil society renders presidential and parliamentary polls in the region sadly predictable, writes Dr Stacy Closson.

  • Iraq, Afghanistan: Conflict and quagmire

  • The Afghan and Iraqi conflicts have been marked by a number of important developments in 2007 that have provided indications as to the future trajectory of both conflicts without signaling a clear path toward conflict resolution, writes Dr Dominic Moran.

  • Energy and political risk in 2008

  • Energy prices are likely remain high - though rendered volatile by geopolitical risks and market speculations - due to increasing demand, while supplies remain constant and terrorism targeting energy infrastructure will pose a grave danger to the world economy, but the use of the energy as a weapon by the West and Russia is unlikely, writes Ken Egli.

  • EU: Creeping confidence

  • If the EU discards its navel-gazing tendency in 2008 and manages not only to position itself as a pillar of global economic policy but to gain strategic perspective and shrewdness based on a competitive economic model, it may become less of a junior partner on the world stage, writes Victor Mauer.

  • Finance: From the West to the Rest

  • Financial activism by state-controlled institutions from emerging markets will accelerate a profound shift in the distribution of financial power from "the West to the Rest," writes Nicola Casarini.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

NATO 2007 End of Year Message

NATO Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer

On the eve of the festive season I would like to share with you my thoughts on the months ahead.

But first I want to address the people we owe most in this organisation – the men and women in uniform. Over 60000 of you currently serve with distinction in NATO-led operations in different parts of the world. Your dedication, courage, professionalism and hard work are a credit to you and to NATO. The risks you take in fulfilling dangerous missions – in Afghanistan, in Kosovo, in the Mediterranean, as well as providing training in Iraq and helping logistically the African Union with its mission in Darfur – say so much about your commitment to security and stability goals. This commitment is greatly appreciated and embodies the highest standard of excellence associated with the Alliance. At this time of the year our thoughts are in particular with the families of those who have paid the highest price in these operations: your sacrifices will not be forgotten and have not been made in vain.

Next year promises to be just as active as the passing one. The whole NATO community – civilians and military alike – will be burning midnight oil to prepare for the key event at the beginning of April: the Bucharest Summit of NATO.

Important decisions await the leaders of 26 Allied countries. They will deliberate on the further enlargement of NATO, on strategic guidance shaping the nature of our continued engagement in Afghanistan and Kosovo, as well as on all the crucial projects essential for tackling major security challenges confronting us. This list includes such diverse topics as fight against terrorism, missile defence, new capabilities, energy security or cyber defence.

I am also convinced that coming months will broaden and intensify NATO’s dialogue and cooperation with our partners. We will strive to improve further a team-work approach with the United Nations and with the European Union. And we will also work more in the framework of the Partnership for Peace, Mediterranean Dialogue and Istanbul Cooperative Initiative. We will spare no efforts to resolve existing differences with the Russian Federation, to support reform efforts in Ukraine.

This is a long list of goals. But NATO is a busy Alliance. Projecting stability where it is needed. Building global partnerships, where they make sense. And standing as a unique forum for transatlantic consultation on security issues. All, as ever, to preserve the security of the citizens of NATO countries and the broader international community.

NATO will continue to make its contribution to international security in 2008. I wish you and your loved ones a safe and happy year. And once again, I send my best wishes, and warm thanks, to the NATO and Partner soldiers far away from home during this festive season.

Vladimir Putin "2007 Person of The Year" Time Magazine

As I've said before, this year will be known for

"The Year The Bear Woke Up"

Time magazine declares Putin

"Person of the Year"

MOSCOW, December 19 (RIA Novosti) - U.S. magazine Time has declared Russian President Vladimir Putin "Person of the Year" for bringing stability to his country and raising Russia's role on the global stage.

Time called Putin a "steely and determined man" who has "emerged as a critical linchpin of the 21st century."

The magazine said Putin's last year in office has been his most successful. "At home, he secured his political future. Abroad, he expanded his outsize - if not always benign - influence on global affairs."

The Russian president is followed in Time's list by Nobel Peace Prize winner and former U.S. vice president Al Gore, Harry Potter creator J.K. Rowling, and Chinese leader Hu Jintao.

The last Russian to be chosen Person of the Year was Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, in 1987. Two years later, Gorbachev was declared Man of the Decade. Two other Soviet leaders, Joseph Stalin (1939, 1942) and Nikita Khushchev (1957), were also Time Magazine's people of the year.

The magazine says it aims to pick "the person or persons who most affected the news and our lives, for good or for ill," and that the award is "not an endorsement."

Describing Putin, the magazine said he "stands, above all, for stability - stability before freedom, stability before choice, stability in a country that has hardly seen it for a hundred years."

Time said it expects the president to continue to lead Russia in his new role as prime minister next year.

Monday, December 17, 2007

UK PM Gordon Brown's 12 17 07 address in the House of Commons on the European Union's future priorities.

With permission Mr Speaker, I would like to make a statement about the European Council held in Brussels on 14 December, which focused on two major concerns:

  • 1. the reforms Europe must make to meet and master the global challenges we face - for competitiveness, employment, secure energy, climate change;
  • 2. and issues of security - in particular Kosovo, Iran and Burma - that we must confront together.
click here for entire article

Europe's Soft Power in a Changing World - A speech by Olli Rehn, European Commissioner for Enlargement


"Dear Colleagues,

Let me start by looking to the past, before turning to the future. It is worth taking stock of just how far we have come in the past two decades.

It is only 15 years ago, in 1992, that the European Common Foreign and Security Policy was born with the Maastricht Treaty. Before then, the European Union remained primarily an economic player on the world stage.

It took another 7 years until Javier Solana was appointed the first EU "High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy" in 1999.

The years in between showed how profoundly the EU needed the leadership that Javier Solana has brought on foreign policy, and the operational capabilities that have since developed.

When Yugoslavia fell apart in 1992, on the eve of Maastricht, Europe stood by disunited and in disbelief, impotent to stop the violence. What Jacques Poos disastrously called the "Hour of Europe" in the Balkans instead became the Union's darkest moment. The first Gulf War further exposed the gap between the Union's common foreign policy "on paper" and practical reality.

Then scroll forward in time to where we are today, around a decade later.

Today there is a common foreign and security policy on the Western Balkans. These countries have an EU membership perspective. I agree with Paddy Ashdown: this is the glue that keeps the region on a peaceful track of reforms – though risks and challenges remain. It is the single greatest transformative force in Europe. Croatia is well underway to join the Union around the end of this decade. Fifteen years ago, it was a country at war.

Enlargement, meanwhile, has added 12 new members to the EU in 2004 and 2007, and proved an enormous economic opportunity. The new Member States have growth rates from 5 to 11 percent. This has contributed to Europe’s ongoing economic revival, and made us a stronger player on the world scene. In this regard, size – and competence – matter.

Turkey and the countries of the Western Balkans are next in line to join, once each of them have met the conditions for accession. Already now, they contribute in tangible ways to the Union's foreign and security policy, be it with troop contributions – like Turkey in Bosnia and Herzegovina – or by aligning themselves with EU joint actions, such as our asset freezes on persons indicted for war crimes by the ICTY.

Europe's ability to act in crisis management has grown explosively in recent years. The first European Security and Defence Policy – or "ESDP" – mission was launched only 5 years ago in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where it remains in place today. Since then, 20 missions have been launched, covering three continents, ranging from fully fledged military missions in the Balkans and Africa, to police missions Iraq and Afghanistan, and rule of law missions in the Caucasus.

If the EU's ability to act has grown explosively in recent years, it has also confirmed the limits of the present institutional framework.

For a start, while knowing the weight of national sovereignty in foreign policy, we will eventually need greater scope for decision making by qualified majority. We also need stronger operational capabilities and a foreign policy set-up that brings together the EU's policy, security and assistance instruments into a coherent structure. We need to back our external actions by internal strength, to combine hard power and soft power into smart power.

The Reform Treaty that will be signed Lisbon next month reflects these needs.

The Treaty provides for an "EU High Representative" who will also be a vice-president of the Commission, backed by an EU “foreign service,” and with a clear mandate to initiate and implement policy. This will strengthen the EU's ability to act and provide foreign policy leadership.

The Treaty also creates a duty to assist any EU member state in the event of a military or terrorist attack or a natural disaster. It also adds new capabilities to existing defence co-operation arrangements.

The EU's Security Strategy is built on the notion that – with new types of threats to our security – the first line of defence will often be abroad, and not always military by nature.

This makes the EU's soft power, and our ability to respond with a mix of policy instruments, all the more central. Be it in the Congo or in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the EU's military deployments are complemented by a political dimension, and sometimes a police or an aid dimension as well.

Turning our eyes to the future and 2030, I hesitate to forecast. This is partly because of the rapid development of the EU's foreign and security policy over the past 15 years, partly because of the dynamic nature of the international relations today.

Who would have predicted, in 1992, that fifteen years later the EU would have thousands of military and civilian personnel deployed on three continents in such diverse missions as is the case today? – or that the Union's CFSP budget line would be bursting at the seams under the demand from new missions?

For most of the 20th century, the list of major world powers was short and relatively unchanging: the UN permanent five, Japan, and to a lesser extent India. The 21st century will be very different. China and India are becoming heavy-weights: it is predicted that by 2025, China will be the world's second biggest economy and India its fourth. Both countries are now significant nuclear powers and they are also developing substantial ocean-going fleets.

By 2030, the world population is forecast to have risen by 25% to 8.3 billion, and Africa's share will have grown to 17-18%, up from 13 percent today. Europe, with Russia, will account for just over 9% of the world's population by 2030, based on current forecasts. This is a major change. In 1950, Europe's population still ranked fourth in the world.

These changes in world economy and population growth will inevitably be reflected in international relations. The question is how. It seems very early to judge this now.

So let me venture only a couple of goals that I believe the Union should strive for by 2030. And I will conclude with a warning against complacency and taking progress too much for granted.

The European Union by 2030 should be able to look back at enlargement taking another stride forward, with most or all of the current accession and pre-accession countries having met the conditions for membership and joined. The Western Balkans would have achieved peace and stability through integration. This will have added to our economic and political weight.

In this context, I would hope that, by 2030, the problems between Cyprus and Turkey would finally have been resolved as well! This is important in its own right, and essential for EU-NATO co-operation to realise its full potential. For the time being, because of the difficulties between Turkey and Cyprus, formal co-operation between the EU and NATO is limited to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Everything else is dealt with only informally. Given the many challenges that we will have to face together in coming years, this simply must change - for everyone's benefit.

I would also hope to see the EU's comprehensive approach to foreign and security – our mix of soft and hard power – to have made the EU an full partner to the UN in crisis management and peace support operations, along with our transatlantic partners, enabling the EU to "punch its weight" in world politics. This, of course, would depend on Member States remaining committed to provide the necessary capabilities.

And this brings me to my final point: the EU is still a Union of 27 Member States; and foreign and security policy remains the principal responsibility of Member States. The Reform Treaty is no panacea for a lack of unity on key policies, or a shortage of resources to deliver them.

We will have an early test coming up, almost before the ink is dry on the Reform Treaty: Kosovo. As ever, it is in the Balkans, in our own front yard, that the EU's soft power will be put to its toughest test.

The essence of decision on Kosovo is European unity. The Kosovo status process is in its endgame. Although the EU is turning every stone and more for a negotiated settlement, the prospects are dimming with each day that passes. The international Troika will finish its work on 10 December, and this will be the end of negotiations. As the EU's mediator, Wolfgang Ischinger has said: if no solution can be found in 120 days, it will not be found in 1200 days either. There is no gain in delaying, only prolonged agony from dragging out the process.

Consequently, as we discuss Europe’s future, we must not take our eyes off the Balkans. Conflict could still break out. We Europeans should not lull ourselves into thinking that we could just somehow muddle through this. Such miracles don’t happen. We need to seize the agenda and continue to lead in a managed and calibrated process.

But, this time, unlike 1992, we must succeed, for the sake of the Kosovo, the Western Balkans and Europe alike.

The EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy must pass this litmus test of an immediate nature in order to retain its credibility and deal with future challenges. This is another reason, apart from regional security, why the EU has so much at stake in Kosovo".


Read my article entitled "Walvoord's Brief Period of Preparation", the commonalities are evident, the counteractions are reachable.

The Two Towers Of Future Russia - The Rise of Dmitry Medvedev and the Re-Configuration of Post-Soviet Politics

* * * * *

Arguably, Vladimir Putin’s nomination on Dec. 10 of Dmitry Medvedev as his preferred successor, and Medvedev’s subsequent offer for Putin to become Russia’s future prime minister will change the structure of post-Soviet Russian politics. Whatever this move may, in the end, entail for the exact redistribution of power in Moscow, it implies that Medvedev will, probably, become Russia’s official leader, while Putin will remain its most powerful man after March 2008. Medvedev’s rise means that Russia might have a serious chance to embark anew on a course of political liberalization and democratization. It will provide a welcome opportunity for Western governments and organizations to reestablish a better partnership with Moscow. However, it also presents a threat that Moscow politics will once again become ideological: Medvedev’s office may become the focal point of liberal and pro-Western trends in Russia while other institution could become the power base for Moscow’s anti-Western nationalists.

Click here for this entire article....

EU Network of Energy Security Correspondents meets in Brussels

EU Network of Energy Security Correspondents meets in Brussels

17/12/2007 17:13

The FINANCIAL -- According to the European Commission, the European Commission is hosting on December 17 the second meeting of the EU Network of Energy Security Correspondents (NESCO) in Brussels. The Network correspondents from the European Commission, the Council Secretariat and the EU Member States will discuss a report on the functioning of the Network since its establishment in May 2007.

Hyundai Signs Deal To Build New Car Plant In Russia

Hyundai Signs Deal To Build New Car Plant In Russia

South Korea's top carmaker Hyundai Motor signed a deal on Monday to build a car factory in Russia with a capacity of 100,000 vehicles a year, officials said.

Hyundai officials said the company would invest 400 million dollars to build the factory in St Petersburg in the first half of next year.

Russia test-fires intercontinental ballistic missile

Russia test-fires intercontinental ballistic missile

MOSCOW, Dec. 17 (Xinhua) -- Russia has on Monday launched a intercontinental ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine as a training program, Itar-Tass news agency reported, citing a military spokesman.

Russia starts nuclear deliveries to Iran

Russia starts nuclear deliveries to Iran

MOSCOW (AFP) — Russia on Monday announced the start of nuclear fuel deliveries for Iran's first atomic power station, brushing aside US and Israeli claims that Tehran harbours secret bomb-making plans.

"On December 16, 2007, Atomstroiexport began delivery of the fuel for the initial installation at the future Bushehr power station," the state-run corporation said in a statement.

The delivery process will take up to two months to complete, Atomstroiexport said, with the Russian-built station starting to generate electricity in approximately six months time.

The still-unfinished Bushehr is the jewel in the crown of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's nuclear power ambitions.

Vladimir Putin Says He Will Accept Prime Minister Job - What a shocker, right?

Vladimir Putin Says He Will Accept Prime Minister Job if Dmitry Medvedev is Elected

Monday, December 17, 2007

MOSCOW — President Vladimir Putin said Monday that he would agree to become Russian prime minister if Dmitry Medvedev is elected as his successor.

Putin told the United Russia congress that if he became premier, he would not seek to change the distribution of power between the president and prime minister. The prime minister is a significantly less powerful figure than the president in Russia.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Walvoord’s Brief Period of Preparation – Mediterranean Peace, Force Agencies, Oil, Polities, Globalisation and Diplomacy

Re-reading John Walvoord’s Armegeddon, Oil and the Middle East Crisis – Revised Edition, specifically regarding Daniels’ Seven Year period Walvoord maps the first 3 ½ years as a time where,

…a number of preliminary moves, which are predicted in the Bible, will shape the political, economic, and religious climate necessary for end-times events. These preliminary moves are now falling into place in rapid succession. As these moves are completed, a more specific timetable of events can begin. The final countdown involves a brief period of preparation with the last seven years clearly delineated1.

Walvoord’s 1974 writings fit today’s energy driven polities climate, mechanically interwoven in the illusive hope for global peace through deceptive modern diplomacy. It is this drive that has the world in a state of perpetual flux. A flux that evolves around the Middle East specifically Israel.

As the will of Annapolis presses peace upon a disenchanted world participants have etched the final solution with a Two State agenda for the Palestinians and Israelis. Fortunately yet unfortunately not all Israelis see this draped euphemistic initiative as the core for peace in the Middle East. As such, some Israelis are being targeted for their radical ideologies and will progressively be dealt with a forceful hand to achieve this peaceful end. In rapid succession international force agencies, such as NATO, will be called upon.

It is force agencies such as NATO that are already transforming it self to meet this need. Force Agency’s technology is a factor. Raytheon recently met that call by supplying a new NATO surveillance system. But a greater petition is needed for money and troops, hence enters Germany and France. Although the Germanic peoples have resisted a post WWII force they are being called upon to help stabilize the Afghanistan region. In fact, Angela Merkel believes in succession with the new EU’s reform treaty, energy security and transatlantic relations will bring NATO alongside the new EU. Look for Germany to be ready to help stabilize Mediterranean energy issues.

It is this pursuit for energy security that brings Empires to the region. In Steve Levine’s current book entitled, The Oil and The Glory - The Pursuit of Empire And Fortune In The Caspian Sea”, energy security of the nineties has propelled today’s polities to stake their claim and future. Walvoord saw the coming crisis,

The coming crisis in the Middle East cannot be far away. The oil supply of the Middle East may run out in another generation. If the Middle East is to rise to power, now is its hour of opportunity. If the Arab world is to attain its goals, it must act quickly2.

Today’s energy centered Empires are in hot acquisition for control and power of energy resources, but more importantly realize this, it will be non governing bodies that will assist in these pursuits thus shaping our future way of life.

These polities, that is, non governing bodies, sometimes loose societies, communities, political or in some cases non-political groups, yet definitely humanity minded, will exert its influence upon national and even global interests. Walvoord wrote,

In our modern world all forms of representative and democratic governments will continue to be plagued by overwhelming problems. These will tend to undermine efforts at strong and resolute world leadership. As both domestic and international problems increase, the world will look for a new leader to act decisively to end turmoil precipitated by the Middle East crisis. Both the need and the tools for the control of the world by one strong ruler exist today. The increasing availability of nuclear weapons, the propaganda power of the world media, and the blackmail power of international agreements and embargoes make it possible for a world dictator to seize control of the world in a way that would have been impossible in any previous generation3.

The polity tools needed for this fourth and final world empire before Christ Jesus’ return are already around us. It’s just a matter of how globalisationalists vs. non-globalisationalists will utilize them. An upcoming book, which will be published through the United Nations University Press, gives us insight into these tools and the dilemma facing diplomats of the people.

In a preview chapter entitled, “Globalisation and Diplomacy” written by Iver B. Neumann from the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs he cites the term “Globalisation” as meaning De-territorialisation. If this is indeed the true essence of the global village then a series of hurdles will have to be addressed.

The main problems for diplomats progressing the globalisation agenda are

1.) Territories - (Space)

2.) The speed of information - (Time)

3.) The amount of information - (Density)

Turning public sentiments to eliminating sovereign territories in the name of globalisation can only succeed by, “the principle composers of globalisation” – JOURNALISTS. Widening their recruiting practices they will be seeking more “diplomats of mankind” type of journalists, small dialectical group think opportunities, non-citizens and QUANGO’s (quasi-autonomous non-governmental organizations).

Look also for retired diplomats of all fields to aid in the de-territorialisation process.

This new order of diplomacy will utilize info gathering, negotiation, communication, easing friction and an appearance of representing the state. Globalisation will end the old hierarchy and implant a new order.

The new art of diplomacy will be pro-active that is, “orchestrating social situations in advance, in the hope that the outcome will be more favorable than it would otherwise have been”.

As I read this paper I remembered what Walvoord envisioned in regards to the emerging “Pax Romana” new order,

The essential bargaining chips of the new order are to restore peace, guarantee the flow of oil, and stop disruption in the Middle East 4….The trends of international intrigue in Europe and the Middle East point to the necessity for an alliance of nations to bring peace and economic prosperity to that area 5….It is very possible that an international peacekeeping force and secure boundaries may be guaranteed by the new and powerful Ten-Nation Confederacy….the key issue in negotiations will be the city of Jerusalem itself…undoubtedly there will be a strong attempt to make Jerusalem an international city, with free access not only for Jews but for Christians and Muslims as well. The temple area may be internationalized, and Israel’s territorial conquests will be greatly reduced6.

Walvoord's "Brief Period of Preparation" speaks volumes to the avid Bible Prophecy student, as it should.

I sincerely believe the intriguing coincidences and events we are witnessing is not just happenstance.

The insight God has given to the few will surely be needed for the many who cannot assemble all the pieces.

So let us be sober minded as our times intensifies.

1. John F. Walvoord, “Armegeddon, Oil, and the Middle East Crisis”, Revised Edition, Ch. 2 pg 24

2. John F. Walvoord, “Armegeddon, Oil, and the Middle East Crisis”, Revised Edition,

Ch. 4 pg 63

3. John F. Walvoord, “Armegeddon, Oil, and the Middle East Crisis”, Revised Edition,

Ch. 12 pg 162

4. John F. Walvoord, “Armegeddon, Oil, and the Middle East Crisis”, Revised Edition,

Ch. 9 pg 121

5. John F. Walvoord, “Armegeddon, Oil, and the Middle East Crisis”, Revised Edition,

Ch. 10 pg 131

6. John F. Walvoord, “Armegeddon, Oil, and the Middle East Crisis”, Revised Edition,

Ch. 10 pg 133

Monday, December 10, 2007

Putin Annoints His Successor - Gazproms Head of The Board of Directors

Russia's first deputy prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev. Photograph: Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters

Having Dmitry Medvedev as president might allow Vladimir Putin to retain a grip on power

Italian and German political analysts said they were surprised by Vladimir Putin's backing of a 'strong' presidential candidate, rather than a loyal supporter who would let him keep the reins of power.

(Vladimir Rodionov/Presidential Press Service/Associated Press)

Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev

Energy, Energy, Energy!!!!!!
Resources, Resources, Resources!!!!!

Calculated move by Putin? You bet your bottom dollar.

Securing Russia's future is NOW even brighter.

This should REALLY tee off Javier Solana, The U.S and Israel.

Putin could even come back AFTERWARDS through his successor (insert ominous music here).

European Think Tank experts are surprised but encouraged.

It's gonna be an expensive and cold winter in Europe, brrrrrr!

Saturday, December 8, 2007

The Europe-NATO-Israel Triangle - Annapolis, The NATO-Mediterranean Dialogue, Two State Solution

It's sometimes hard to fathom the depth of The Europe-NATO-Israel Triangle but here again is another article affirming that an Historical Transformation is occurring In Plain Sight.

This time lets hear from Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni December 7th 2007 address at the NATO-Mediterranean Dialogue Meeting in Brussels.

"This idea of a dialogue between NATO and the Mediterranean countries represents an understanding and re-assessment of the new nature of the challenges we all face and the need for new alliances to challenge them.

From the Israeli perspective, this dialogue represents two important but different perspectives:

The first - the relationship between Israel and NATO.

The second perspective is the fact that ...This (the NATO-Mediterranean Dialogue Ministerial Meeting) symbolizes new understandings of the common challenge and gives hope for the future.

In Annapolis we launched three different processes:

1. The bilateral process between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, aimed to try and answer all issues revolving the conflict.

2. The process of actual changes on the ground -

a. the implementation of the Roadmap - an obligation that both parties took upon themselves in Annapolis. Israel expects the Palestinians to meet these obligations, to fight terror, as we are ready to implement our part.

b. Direct support of the international community to the capacity-building of the PA - in order to create a functioning and effective government.

3. The process with the Arab world - it is needed for the legitimacy, support of normalization in stages, to show that we understand the same challenges and threats.

On the 12th of December (Note* Same Day as CFE Treaty with Russia Officially Ends) we will hold the first negotiations meeting, but as the Israeli chief negotiator I want to say that our ability to bridge the gaps, to make compromises on the issue of borders, directly relates to our security needs. And so the gap we need to bridge is between the future understandings we will reach and the situation on the ground.

I believe that it is our responsibility and aspiration to meet these goals and to implement the vision of two states for two peoples, living side by side in peace and security, but simultaneously we need to work together in order to stop smuggling of weapons in Lebanon and Gaza, and to fight terrorism wherever it arises.

There needs to be an understanding that peace requires not only a political agreement between the parties - that is to be achieved only through direct bilateral talks - but also through the assurances of its implementation on the ground (Note* This was unveiled at Annapolis).

Israel's ability to reach an agreement based on substantial territorial concessions directly relates to our need to make sure we do not jeopardize our security and our future.

Here, I believe, the dialogue between Israel and NATO begins".

Thank you Ms. Livni for clearing that up for us.

Desperate Times Will Call For Desperate Actions

And just as the picture above shows Gustave Courbet’s “The Desperate Man” being viewed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Frances Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris, this New Transformation between Europe, NATO and Israel will be a Desperate attempt for peace and security in Israel.

So, lets continue to sift through the news for our clarity.

O Come O Come Emmanuel

And Ransom Captive Israel

Friday, December 7, 2007

The Europe-NATO-Israel Triangle - Historical Transformation In Plain Sight

NATO Headquarters Brussells

Take note that an historical transformation continues to build for the Europe-NATO-Israel Triangle.

As Condoleeza Rice visits NATO Headquarters in Brussells, Rice's intenerary and topics confirms that the transformation of NATO is being maneuvered with the highest protocols in plain sight and how this will continue being an important factor in determining who will implement through law and action war against all others.

The Middle East, Russia, Kosovo, Iran and the CFE Treaty will be discussed, "Rice's two days of meetings here include talks with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni".

Ah yes, our German friends whose "excellent relations with Iran" as researcher Farmer has noted is ready and "is qualified to play an effective role to establish peace in the world" as the Saudi Arabian King Abdullah has said.

Nonetheless the Israeli government continues to dictate it's own non-member relations with NATO with a new agreement signing a memorandum of understanding on logistic support cooperation with NATO agency, NAMSA.

As our previous articles have stated the Old NATO is out and the New NATO is in, such as the consideration of a NATO SUPER ENVOY to handle the problem of Afghanistan. NATO alliance spokesman James Appathurai says, "Allies believe there is a need for greater coordination across the spectrum".

Can anybody say, SUPER COLOSSAL FRAGILISTIC GLOBAL POLICE APPARATUS? Or just say Transformed NATO because they are coming to a town near YOU.

If Charles Kupchan, the senior fellow for European Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, says is true then you better get ready for a Fallout from Javier's 99' campaign in the Balkans,

"The distance between Belgrade and Pristina is huge. It has not closed since the very beginning, and there is not a prospect of a compromise from either side. In that sense I fear we are looking at situation where there will be a major rift between Moscow and Washington and Moscow and the European Union...

Kupchan says Kosovo's independence, which would be monitored by the international community, appears inevitable. But he says western countries must be prepared for the fallout...

Kupchan says the international community should be ready to act decisively - including putting more riot police on the ground and allowing flexibility among the NATO troops already there".

As NATO prepares for the Kosovo violence and the awakening Russian Bear the emergence of a New NATO, EU and Israeli alliance will surely morph into it's maxim by the NATO Summit of 2009.

The UN will continue it's humankind relational posturing alongside of the changing law and seasons of the New EU Empire.

This is where we are today.
Sifting through the news for you.

BUT WAIT********************
This just in 9:18 a.m CST USA

Dec. 7: U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the NATO meeting in Brussels

Russia and China Ignores Iran Issue at NATO Brussells Meeting.

Although the P5+1 Group
Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — plus Germany were pressured into sanctions against Iran, China and Russia ignores them.

Rice met Livni and both believe a military strike against Iran is still on the table.

"There is no military element in their (Iran's) nuclear program", says Lavrov.

Wednesday, December 5, 2007

Nazi Past Comes To Silent Terms With The Eurocentric

Nicholas Cage in the Lord of War buying out Russian Arsenal

50 German Manufacturers In Customs Investigation For Illegally Supplying IRAN'S Nuclear Reactor

Vero, a Berlin-based front company and German electronics giant Siemens caught in entangled web

The danger of Germany's strange silence on Ahmadinejad

In my November 9th article, "Arab Peace Initiative Strengthened By Germany" I noted that a strong German-Saudi relationship has existed and was now coming into a public light.

Well, it seems that Germany's Middle East relationships do not end with the Saudi's, in fact it's just the tip of the iceberg.

There are now accounts of a German-Iranian relationship that has existed.

Like the Nicholas Cage movie, "Lord of War" there is "a necessary evil" that has to be in place for the interests of some nations. But in this instance, where Germany is now being investigated for nuclear gunrunning components to Iran, this necessity should be noted in light of UN/US/EU disapproval of Iran's nuclear quest.

In particular, a strange silence from Germany has occurred in regards to "Fascist Dictators" like Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Where, indeed, are the Anti-Fascists of Germany? asks a Fellow at the American Academy in Berlin for Fall 2007 and Professor of Modern European History at the University of Maryland, College Park.

Has the huge profits of supplying nuclear military arms to Iran, reaching from the lowly "nuclear gunrunner" to the head of Germany's foreign ministry, muted the voices of the Holocaust?

Is the deep web of Germany 's nuclear technological connection, as reported in the Haaretz, superseding Foreign Trade and Customs law?

The answer is YES!

This new information continues to reaffirm Harry Beckhough's Germanys Four Reich's historical first hand account of Pre and Post WWII Germany which is seldom heard in todays Global Dialogue Concensus and Compromise, a strongly suggested read by this writer.

But in the meantime as this continues to take a back seat to more important news, let us continue to sift through - I guarantee more light on this matter will revealed.

Monday, December 3, 2007

Crucial Implementation Period Already Decided - Temple Mount To Be Jointly Given to Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority

Javier Solana's Crucial Implementation Period in Annapolis continues to be unveiled to the world.

It continues to be NO SURPRISE to hear that Ehud Olmert has already surrendered the Temple Mount.

Just as the agenda has been privately set, publicly, little by little, bits and pieces are leaked out like a damaged sewer line.

So the question is how much more sewage will Christians continue to ignore?

What will it take for the Prosperity Christians, the New Apostolic Christians, the Purpose Driven Christians and the Pro Liberal Two State Solution Christians to wake up before it is too late?

How much more will they continue to play into the hands of the Satanic Global Agenda Elite?

Where are the True Shepherds that have been commissioned to Feed and Take Care of Jesus' sheep?

I encourage you to stay alert to those that are forewarning you of these deceitful times.

P.S. Forgot to include the Emergent Church Christians. Feel Free to Add any other in comments.

As Israel Releases 429 Palestinian Prisoners Olmert Does Not See 2008 As Deadline For Peace

As Israel released 429 Palestinian prisoners as a practical gesture to strengthen Abbas and to reinforce peace process measures on the ground Olmert does not see the 2008 two state solution peace agreement as a deadline.

Actually, Olmert hopes to reach this agreement ASAP!

"While Israelis and Palestinians prepared to resume formal peace talks next week, Olmert told his Kadima Party faction — as he told Cabinet a day earlier — that Israel did not regard the December 2008 peace deal target date as a deadline.

Still, he said he hoped "to reach an agreement — if possible — as soon as possible."

Article located here

Wesley Clark in Briarcliff Manor, warns against war with Iran

Clark said "unprepared talks" with Ahmedinejad could lead to "adverse outcomes."

In regards to Annapolis Clark said, "it would be a miracle" if a peace agreement is reached by the end of 2008.

His (Clark) speech was apart of the synagogue's annual Seymour and Lilian Teitelbaum Memorial lecture, a speaker series focusing on social and political change. Rabbi Steven Kane said the synagogue invited Clark because his "expertise in foreign policy is of particular interest to the Jewish community."

Read this mornings full article here

Sunday, December 2, 2007

Ret. General Wesley Clark Speaks at Jewish Synagogue In Briarcliff Manor, NY

Ret. General Wesley Clark Speaks at Jewish Synagogue In Briarcliff Manor, NY

Wesley Clark speaking at the Congregation Sons of Israel synagogue told the congregation that Hillary Clinton is the most qualified candidate for President of The United States in 2008. Clark believes she has the leadership qualities needed for the Middle East.

He also said attacking Iran is from the Cold War.

Clark cites Paul Wolfowitz as "searching for a new enemy". Clark said in regards to Iran, "We're not so good at understanding people's intentions...You can't get the best intelligence on that without talking to our adversaries."

Full article to appear in Monday's December 3, 2007 edition

Outside View: Steps toward an EU-NATO link

Outside View: Steps toward an EU-NATO Link

Daniel Korski, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations believes we should seize the opportunity to merge the EU and NATO.

Although NATO and the EU are being regarded as two differing entities this article is publicly moving them towards two sides of the same coin.

Although there was a period of strong cooperation between Lord Robertson at NATO and Javier Solana, the EU's foreign policy czar, the two have drifted apart.

Now a call to unite in two areas are being put on the table.

First, a joint NATO/EU Center for Security and Justice Sector Reform.

Second, a NATO/EU School for Conflict, Post-Conflict and Stabilization.

Who would be in charge of the new collaboration?

To overcome political obstacles one person could rotate as head of both.

A New Alignment Gathers Momentum






JANUARY 20-23, 2008


(Updated: November 18, 2007)

The Conference agenda features substantive discussions on the most pressing national, international and world Jewish issues, alongside keynote addresses by Israeli and international leaders, including the Prime Minister's address, known as "The Herzliya Address."

  • The Balance Sheet: Israel's National Security – The 2008 “Herzliya Indices”
  • The Winograd Alarm: National Security Decision-Making
  • Risks and Opportunities in the Post-Annapolis Israeli-Arab Negotiation Process
  • The Heart of the Matter: Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel and of the Jewish People
  • Global Trends: Geo-strategic Fluctuations and Energy Security
  • Global Trends: The Challenge of Radical Islam
  • On the Brink of a Nuclear Iran: Prospects for Prevention and Deterrence
  • The Atlantic Alliance: Dealing with Nuclear Proliferation, Radical Islam and Terror
  • Safeguarding the Environment to Safeguard Generations
  • Engines for Growth: Energizing the Israeli Economy
  • Opportunity in the Global Age: Socio-Economic Welfare and the State
  • The Cart of Secular Judaism – Full, Empty or Stuck?
  • The 2008 Israeli Patriotism Survey
  • A World Entire: Philanthropy in Israel and the Jewish World
  • Promoting the Values of Excellence in Israel
  • Israeli National Service as a Civic Duty
  • The "Herzliya Consensus": Prioritizing Among Social Programs
  • Endurance Forever: Safeguarding Long-Term Security and Prosperity of the Jewish People and Israel
The Herzliya Conference Series

The Herzliya Conference on “The Balance of Israel’s National Strength (hosen) and Security" is unique among the plethora of Israeli and international conferences. The very concept of "hosen" (Hebrew for strength, endurance, and resilience), used as the central theme of all the Conferences, has become a widely used coin of expression in public discourse and in many official declarations.

Since its inception, the Herzliya Conference has become the annual "summit meeting" of the most influential Israeli and international leaders. Participants at the Conference include: government officials, Knesset members and ministers, senior defense officials, leaders of the Israeli business community, senior academicians, media representatives from Israel and abroad, representatives from various leading Jewish organizations in the Diaspora, dignitaries from abroad and the diplomatic corps in Israel.